By Steve Dinnen
Dogs of the Dow: Heel! Make way for the “dead cat bounce.”
The investing community is forever finding new ways to size up stock prospects. Two such perspectives are named for household pets, even though their namesakes couldn’t care less. But the New York research firm Wolfe Research suggests there may be some “dead cat” opportunities.
The bluntly named theory goes like this: If a dead cat were thrown from a sufficient height, it would bounce on the ground, even just a little. On Wall Street, if a stock has fallen so much, so quickly, it might just get a little lift at the end.
When some stocks are left for dead, they tend to surge in the final two weeks of December and in early January, according to Wolfe Research.
These stocks often face additional selling pressure in September and October from large investors unloading shares to register losses they can use to offset capital gains in their portfolios. Around the new year, the same funds frequently buy the same stocks back, giving their share prices a temporary lift.
By way of example, Wolfe Research pointed at Intel (down 62% year to date), Walgreens Boots Alliance (down 62%) and Moderna (down 57%) as “dead cat” candidates. Walgreens has performed so badly it’s even described as a “dog of the Dow,” a ranking of Dow Jones traded companies that have fallen but pay nice dividends and may bounce back.
Joining Moderna in this corporate canine lineup are giants such as IBM, Biogen, Coca-Cola and Verizon. IBM has notched a respectable 39% upside return so far this year, but the rest of the dogs are still in the doghouse.
